Bethea's Byte
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 I6KIB
Welcome to Bethea's Byte. If you are a member, please sign in and participate. If you are not a member, please sign up and join the conversation. We'd love to hear from you.
WELCOME TO BETHEA'S BYTE
To all guests of this site, please feel free to look things over, but you are encouraged to register and take part in discussing all news reports posted here. You are also encouraged, as a member to post your own news stories. You are also encouraged to debate these stories as well, especially in the political areas. All I ask is that no matter what side you're on, keep the debates civil. If you are joining us from another forum, affiliate with us. We are more than happy to check you out, join your site and participate with you as well. The Arcade is not set to keep score, but it is set for fun. So play the games and test your skills and your luck. Again, you are welcome here at Bethea's Byte. BYTE THIS!
Latest topics
» hello everyone
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Yesterday at 4:18 pm by Kyng

» Disney Drops 'Fox' Name and Will Rebrand Its Movie Studio as '20th Century'
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Yesterday at 4:13 pm by The Last Outlaw

» How are you feeling right now?
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Yesterday at 4:11 pm by Kyng

» ‘Once This Is Over, We’ll Be Kings’: How Lev Parnas Worked His Way Into Trump’s World — And Now Is Rattling It
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:19 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson Breaks His Silence on His Father’s Death at 75: ‘I’m in Pain’
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:19 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Ex-White House Ethics Chief Calls McConnell A 'Perjurer' After Senator Takes Impeachment Oath: He Said 'The Exact Opposite'
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:57 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Senate Opens Impeachment Trial Against President Trump: Chief Justice John Roberts Sworn In
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:24 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Impeachment Managers Deliver Charges to Senate, Paving the Way for Trial
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:08 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Impeachment Manager Val Demings Has Called For McConnell's Recusal From Senate Trial
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:50 pm by The Last Outlaw

» What was the last movie you saw?
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:27 pm by Kyng

» What are you looking forward to right now?
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:26 pm by Kyng

» Putin Moves to Shore Up Power as Medvedev Resigns
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:25 pm by Kyng

» The All-Brown Royal Family Outfits: Are They Sending Us A Message?
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:23 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Rocky Johnson Dead: The Rock's Wrestler Dad Passes Away at Age 75
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:53 pm by The Last Outlaw

» 'Jeopardy!: The Greatest of All Time' Crowns Ken Jennings Winner
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:16 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Reveals Class of 2020
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:59 pm by The Last Outlaw

» Meghan Markle Steps Out For The First Time Since Stepping Back as a Senior Royal
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:41 am by The Last Outlaw

» House Votes to Send Trump Impeachment to Senate For Trial
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:26 am by The Last Outlaw

» McConnell, Schumer Issue Ground Rules For Impeachment Trial
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:58 am by The Last Outlaw

» Pelosi Announces House Impeachment Managers to Prosecute Case Against Trump
Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Clock-10Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:44 am by The Last Outlaw

Top posting users this week

Top posting users this month
Log in

I forgot my password

Who is online?
In total there are 3 users online :: 1 Registered, 0 Hidden and 2 Guests

The Last Outlaw

[ View the whole list ]


Most users ever online was 156 on Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:22 am
Statistics
We have 28 registered users
The newest registered user is justjane

Our users have posted a total of 2334 messages in 1004 subjects
January 2020
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

Calendar Calendar

Notifications
    Affiliate With Bethea’s Byte


    Bethea's Byte

    Anti-Spam Bots!

    Submit Your Site To The Web's Top 50 Search Engines for Free!






    The Coffee House


    Planet Nexus


    IconSkouliki



    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020

    View previous topic View next topic Go down

    The Last Outlaw
    The Last Outlaw
    Head Administrator
    Head Administrator
    Male Posts : 1271
    Age : 43
    Join date : 2018-05-25
    Location : Salem, Oregon, USA
    Status :
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BgLx6
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BgMuy

    https://betheasbyte.forumotion.com/forum

    PostThe Last Outlaw on Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:19 am

    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 IlWna

    From Politico

    Ben White of Politico wrote:President Donald Trump needs two big achievements to keep markets and the economy as glittering assets in his challenging 2020 reelection bid: passage of a new NAFTA and a trade deal with China.

    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 $

    But Democrats are stringing him along on the first — the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement — and he’s engaged in a seemingly endless rope-a-dope with China on the second with no guarantee of success. That’s left the economy as a major wild card for next year.

    Businesses are sitting on cash instead of making investments. Growth is stalled at around 2 percent and expected to slow. Jobs numbers are decent but far from “yuge.” And big campaign promises remain unfulfilled. Even Trump’s most ardent supporters acknowledge the president’s reelection bid would face enormous risks if the economy turns down next year.

    “If the economy starts to falter in 2020, Trump can’t win. There are just too many people who don’t like him but would otherwise vote for him in a good economy,” said Stephen Moore, a conservative economist and outside adviser to the president. “And Trump knows that. He gets that. He knows he needs a strong stock market and a strong economy. And getting a China phase one deal done and getting USMCA done would significantly reduce the threat of any kind of slowdown or recession in 2020.”

    Trump’s top internal advisers get it as well.

    They know the difference between an economy suffering under continuing trade wars — and one in which both a China deal and NAFTA are largely resolved — could be the difference between a one- and two-term Trump presidency.

    “These are two very big factors,” Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, said in an interview. “There are a lot of different estimates around but several, including the Council of Economic Advisers, have suggested that a satisfactory China deal plus USMCA could add almost 1 percent to next year’s GDP. That’s a difference between a 2 percent economy and a 3 percent economy and that’s very powerful.”

    But both agenda items remain under threat.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said positive things about the USMCA, Trump’s NAFTA successor. But she’s also signaled it could drift into next year as the House remains focused on impeachment proceedings in the dwindling days of the 2019 legislative year. And getting enough Democrats to support a trade deal that is unpopular with the progressive wing of the party in an election year could be highly challenging.

    After more negotiations this week, officials sounded an optimistic note about their prospects with Congress. If USMCA fails, Trump would be faced with a decision to either allow the existing NAFTA deal to remain in place or follow through on threats to kill it, a potentially market- and economy-shattering event.

    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 $

    People close to Trump say he would never actually allow NAFTA to expire heading into reelection, given the impact on supply chains, particularly in critical swing states in the industrial Midwest. But no one is certain what Trump will do if Democrats decide it’s in their political interest to stall USMCA as the election approaches. Trump could decide blaming Democrats on NAFTA and continuing to fight with Beijing are political winners for him.

    The White House has been increasingly aggressive in attacking Pelosi over the USMCA deal in recent days. Trump recently complained that the deal is “sitting on Pelosi’s desk” and that she is “incapable of moving it.”

    On China, the two sides continue to negotiate toward a potential mini-deal that would at least forestall new tariffs scheduled to go into effect in mid-December. Senior White House advisers say a deal remains very close after a recent phone call between the two sides. The Chinese are also once again making positive noises.

    But differences remain on exactly which tariffs would be removed and what kind of changes the Chinese will agree to on intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer and other critical issues. The pro-Hong Kong democracy bill that Trump signed Wednesday also complicates the trade talks.

    Meanwhile, markets continue to move ahead under the expectation that a China deal will get done and USMCA will ultimately pass. Failure of one or both could trigger a serious decline on Wall Street, analysts warn. At a rally in Florida on Tuesday, Trump once again heralded the recent run of market records — but those are all at risk if the China deal and new NAFTA fizzle.

    “I don’t think investors understand that the levels of ‘uncertainty’ are totally unprecedented according to many measures,” said Richard Bernstein, the veteran Wall Street analyst and founder of RBAdvisors. “We are in uncharted territory and the economy is accordingly slowing and [capital expenditure] is weak because risk premiums are higher than normal.”

    Meanwhile, data on the current economy continue to come in decidedly mixed. Housing looks fairly strong. New homes sales fell in October but the outlook still remains solid. Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November but still remains at a fairly elevated level, suggesting decent holiday sales numbers.

    The picture is darker in manufacturing which has been declining for three straight months, with global trade uncertainty cited is the key factor. Business investment spiked in late 2017 and early 2018 after Trump and the GOP slashed corporate rates and made other changes to encourage spending on new plants and equipment. But it’s mostly declined since then.

    Economists argue that the U.S. economy is big enough and diverse enough to continue to muddle along at close to 2 percent growth as long as employment gains continue and wages keep rising steadily.

    Recent talk of possible recession in 2020 has largely died down. But it could flare up again in a significant way if Trump fails on both the USMCA and China. That would not only complicate matters for business executives deciding where and how to allocate capital but would hit both producers and consumers with new tariffs.

    “If we see China tensions ramp up again on the trade front and moving further into more non- tariff barriers, from China in particular but also from the U.S., you could see a much bigger hit to confidence levels on business and supply chains that are already being challenged,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “Then if NAFTA gets ripped up, the impact would be somewhere around 200,000 lost jobs. And the 2020 recession odds we have now around 25 to 30 percent would certainly worsen and we’d be lucky to get 2 percent growth.”

    A 2 percent or worse economy, in which job growth, manufacturing and capital expenditures are all slowing is not one that a president — already facing likely impeachment in the House and the drama of a trial in the Senate — is likely to be able to navigate to victory, even his closest advisers concede.

    Trump’s strongest numbers continue to be on the economy, where a recent CNN survey put his approval rating at 55 percent, a factor tied to the low jobless rate and high stock prices. But his overall approval rating was at just 42 percent, a weak number for an incumbent.

    That means Trump can’t really afford for the two remaining big-ticket items on his economic policy list — USMCA and a China deal — to fall to defeat in ways that could dent his best reelection argument: “You may not like me, but your life is getting better.”

    And if all of that falls apart, investors fear a downward spiral in markets they’ve long considered frothy.

    Under this scenario, Trump’s big agenda items fail, he looks even more vulnerable to defeat and businesses begins to worry that a progressive Democrat like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or even former Vice President Joe Biden could win and seek to unwind Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation, causing a further pullback in business activity that makes the 2020 economy even worse for the incumbent.

    “Let’s say there is a one-in-three chance of them winning, you’d think markets would begin pricing that risk in and so far they haven’t don’t that,” said Moore. “That may be the biggest risk, that Trump faces a negative feedback loop if markets think Warren or Bernie Sanders or someone like that could be president. That’s the death spiral for him.”

    I've said this on numerous occasions when it comes to the economy and Donald Trump.

    Trump lies.  The numbers don't lie.  Now you're seeing that it's the economy that is putting his re-election on the line.  Politico just mention that those who do not like Trump would likely vote for him in the event of a good economy.  If the economy falters in 2020, his fat goes deeper into the fire considering that he's facing impeachment.

    Just Saying.
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 I6goy

    _________________
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BvZDcTwo Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 IEoIn
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Nexads420
    Kyng
    VIP Member
    VIP Member
    Posts : 368
    Join date : 2018-05-30
    Status :
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 1229
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 2101

    PostKyng on Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:44 pm

    Yeah, pretty much. If the economy's still good, then I can see large numbers of people who don't like him choosing to hold their noses and vote for him. That doesn't mean that the Democratic candidate is doomed, but it means they'll have an uphill climb, and they'd need to run a truly spirited campaign in order to win.

    On the other hand, if the economy does go south, then I see no path for him to be re-elected. Of course, he'll try to boast that the economy's still good... but you can't fake-news the economy, because people can see and feel it for themselves.

    (Of course, this doesn't mean the Democrats should hope for an economic crash: that's just insane. It means they should try their best to find a candidate who can win without one)
    The Last Outlaw
    The Last Outlaw
    Head Administrator
    Head Administrator
    Male Posts : 1271
    Age : 43
    Join date : 2018-05-25
    Location : Salem, Oregon, USA
    Status :
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BgLx6
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BgMuy

    https://betheasbyte.forumotion.com/forum

    PostThe Last Outlaw on Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:07 pm

    @Kyng wrote:Yeah, pretty much. If the economy's still good, then I can see large numbers of people who don't like him choosing to hold their noses and vote for him. That doesn't mean that the Democratic candidate is doomed, but it means they'll have an uphill climb, and they'd need to run a truly spirited campaign in order to win.

    On the other hand, if the economy does go south, then I see no path for him to be re-elected. Of course, he'll try to boast that the economy's still good... but you can't fake-news the economy, because people can see and feel it for themselves.

    (Of course, this doesn't mean the Democrats should hope for an economic crash: that's just insane. It means they should try their best to find a candidate who can win without one)

    When it comes to the economy, it's like I said, Trump lies. The numbers don't lie.

    I do agree that Democratic voters should not hope (or in some cases pray) for an economic collapse. If anything, right now, Trump's fat is in the fire as far as impeachment goes. No matter how "unfair" he claims the process is, here's something to know: The Constitution has made it so that it's fair for everyone who occupies the office of President of the United States.

    _________________
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 BvZDcTwo Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 IEoIn
    Two Big Things That Could Save or Sink Trump in 2020 Nexads420
    Sponsored content

    PostSponsored content

    View previous topic View next topic Back to top

    Create an account or log in to leave a reply

    You need to be a member in order to leave a reply.

    Create an account

    Join our community by creating a new account. It's easy!


    Create a new account

    Log in

    Already have an account? No problem, log in here.


    Log in

     
    Permissions in this forum:
    You cannot reply to topics in this forum