New GOP Tax Cuts Would Add $3.8T To Deficit, Says Report

Chris Mills Rodrigo of The Hill wrote:

A second round of GOP tax cuts would add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next two decades, according to a report released Thursday by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Wednesday.

The proposed bill, "Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018," would reduce federal revenue by $631 billion from FY 2019-28 and an additional $3.15 trillion between FY 2029-38.

The bill, released by Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee Kevin Brady, would extend individual income and estate tax provisions in the 2017 Republican tax bill, the Tax Cut and Jobs Act."

The report from Urban-Brookings, which is led by a former tax official from the Obama administration, states that about two-thirds of taxpayers would get a tax cut, while about 9 percent would get a tax hike from the bill. Higher-income households, it says, on average would receive larger average tax cuts as a percentage of after-tax income.

The provisions in the tax law are not set to expire until 2025 regardless, which explains the lower estimate for revenue lost in the first 10-year period.

While Republicans have argued the new tax bill would boost the economy, the report estimates its effects would be minimal. It estimates the bill would increase GDP by about 0.5 percent in 2026, 0.4 percent in 2028 and 0.1 percent in 2038.

By imposing lower tax rates on labor and capitol income, the bill would increase incentives for working and saving. This feedback loop would increase revenue by a cumulative $71 billion over the first decade analyzed and $157 billion over the second.

The Joint Committee on Taxation also estimates $631 billion in revenue would be lost under the bill in the next decade, but has not made predictions past then.